http://www.milligazette.com/print/issue/16-28-february-2015
Strategy for
the Modi era
The BJP government is set to release
the census figures of 2011. The earlier government’s hand had been stayed when
these became available in the run up to national elections. Their fear back
then was perhaps that the BJP would take advantage of the figures on increase
in Muslim numbers to project Congress appeasement as its electoral plank. In
the event, depriving the BJP of a vote catching issue did not help the Congress
any. The BJP is currently set to take the advantage of these numbers timely: in
the run up now to elections in Delhi and in the buildup already underway in
Bihar. The Muzaffarnagar route to national elections of last year is being
reenacted: in Trilokpuri earlier and now in Muzaffarpur respectively. The
census figures release, initially as ‘leaks’, are to drive up communal frenzy:
‘Muslims are coming; BJP to the rescue!’
Mr. Modi is in a win-win position. In
case he keeps his distance from communal mobilisation, a trick mastered by his
ace strategist, Amit Shah, he can profit politically from the gains Hindutva
makes electorally. Alongside, he gains in stature as the only one who can rein
in the communal forces, since, by maintaining a distance, he appears as a
neutral umpire. This will increase his appeal for the middle class, not so much
impressed by the Hindutva plank as much as by his developmental plank. Even the
minorities – Muslims and Christians – imposed on will look to him to restrain
those who act in his name. Therefore, if he chooses not to act to rein in the
Hindutva brigade, as he has currently done, he gains electorally, and if he
does choose to act to rein them in at an opportune, he gains some brownie
points with the middle class and breaks the ice with distrustful minorities.
As long as the goose delivers the
golden egg – electoral dividend - Mr. Modi can afford inaction. His overt
project currently is in the budget keeping his corporate backers and middle
class supporters placated. Alongside, the covert agenda of saffronising India
is unfolding without any hitch since the sections that could critique this are
in any case waiting with bated breath for the budget. Mr. Modi intends to usher
in the long awaited second phase of economic reforms, something Manmohan was
restrained from by a Congress high command mindful of social costs. Mr. Modi
can afford to neglect this since he has the Hindutva potion to administer the
masses.
In any case any backlash to these
‘reforms’ will only mount when the have not’s recognize themselves at the receiving
end and get their act together, perhaps a decade on. Minorities, hoping to be
in on the economic action, will also wait to see if they are included. He in
any case has the suppressive machinery of the Indian state to employ to stamp
on any reactions from perceptions of deprivation. Therefore, Mr. Modi has the
initiative and a window of opportunity of almost a decade.
Therefore, Mr. Modi does not need to
act to rein in the right wing. He can continue as their champion and they his symbiotic
support base. The political animal in Mr. Modi knows, ‘You don’t cut the branch
you sit on’. He would not risk alienating them even if he builds on the middle
class constituency by coming up with smart cities, bullet trains and $500
billion bonhomie package with the US. The middle class needs him more than he
does them. Modi’s economic moves are set to take India, buoyed by international
economic upturn brought about by the Obama led US turn round and the down slide
in oil prices, past China’s growth figures by next year. Therefore, Mr. Modi
does not need to fear the middle class or its being embarrassed by his Hindutva
inspired reset of India. Mr. Modi can rely on the Hindutva brigade to deliver
up Bihar this year and the twin cards, Hindutva and the economy, to wrest UP by
2017. Mr. Modi will then be set to capture Rajya Sabha and, thereby, take out a
long term lease on the political high ground.
Where does this leave India’s largest
minority that census numbers record as being 14.2 per cent or 172 million strong?
This analysis of Mr. Modi’s longevity shows that the minority requires settling
in for the long haul under Mr. Modi. Mr. Modi can be expected to keep the lid
on things, even if he does not rein in Hindutva zealots, since he needs
stability for the economy to deliver. In any case, it is impossible to envisage
an energetic counter by the minority to spread of Hindutva, since the minority
lacks the unity that can lend it a strategic base. It myriad, multiple and vulnerable
communities, spread across India, should not be allowed to be exposed to unwanted
security attention. On the positive side, it can instead try and gain the
economic traction it was unable to access under the Congress system of sops for
votes. By no means is this to fall for the slogan ‘Sabke Saath, Sabka Vikas’,
but to be forewarned that strategizing for the long durée requires a cool head.
What are the contours of a strategy
for the Modi era?
A viable strategy must begin with the
parameters. Terms of reference set out in the analysis here is that the
minority pockets being vulnerable should not be exposed unnecessarily to
security pressure and that the minority must not lose out another chance at
economic rise. It bears recall that the elite can vote for India with their
feet if the going gets tough, as indeed a past generation did by migrating. The
masses cannot be let down twice over in one century.
Easily is ruled out an adversarial
approach. There is no national leadership, leave alone a centralized one, for
the Muslim community. Its various communities must per force rely on respective
regional and neighbouring communities, including and principally the majority
community. This is important to highlight since even if there is no leadership there
is never a shortage of pretenders. There is a bid for national standing
emerging from Hyderabad for instance. This is all for the good in case it pulls
it off, but the fact remains that the strategy of the MIM, of confrontation and
lowering down to the level of Hindutva invective and provocation, is
counter-productive.
A three-step strategic possibility consequently
emerges in case the parameters are to be met. The first is at the local level.
Muslims need expanding and intermeshing with their local neighbours across the
country, especially those deprived as themselves. A common front for the have
not’s will ensure that any economic trickle down does not bypass them. The
government’s health budget cut suggests that communities would require fending
for themselves and not relying on the government. Regional Muslim leaders can
only gain superficially in case they rely on the communal card for support.
Grand standing will get them short term benefit of representing a ‘threatened
minority’, but over time the confrontation can only redound to the disadvantage
of the community they represent. For instance in the illustration from
Hyderabad above, with Andhra money being invested in its new capital, Hyderabad
would be at a loss if alongside the Owaisi brothers take the Hindutva bait of
identity politics. Muslims should be wooed with a taste of the development
plank instead and presenting themselves as the dynamo for Telangana can help
situate them well in the politics of the two new states.
Second is at the national level. The
political opposition is in hibernation. It is awaiting policy missteps by the
government to bounce back. Given India’s economic prospects, this is unlikely
in the middle term. Therefore, Muslims can at best be reactive to developments.
Once the Modi mantra wears off over the majority, Muslims can lend an electoral
shoulder to displace him. The national level showing of Muslim leaders must in
the interim be to forge bonds between themselves so as to ensure that the
relative physical isolation of Muslim communities is mitigated. Else India can end up with ghettos such as
Jehanabad India wide. Another significant line of action is to ensure
moderation so that the government cannot cite adverse security conditions in
Muslim inhabited areas to justify exclusionary politics. Muslims are a handy
other for vertical integration for Hindus. There is no call to assist Modi in
this by making it easier for him. Muslims must permit Modi the luxury of
behaving the statesman in order that he is not permitted the opportunity of
being himself at their cost.
Third is the international level.
There are portents of a draw down in the Muslim world brought on by raging
conflicts at its’ hitherto center, exacerbated by the likely leadership
uncertainty on the demise of the Saudi king. This will have obvious economic
fallout from remittance and employment point of view for Muslim Indians. Second,
the thrust for foreign policy activism on India’s part to gain strategically,
particularly from any discomfiture of its neighbor, Pakistan, would need
watching. The latter has had an artificial link drawn with India’s Muslims, one
drawn by strategists who are also closet rightists.
Third, and more significantly, South
Asian Muslims now number half a billion, clearly more than Indonesia and in the
Arab world. The dividend from this in the form of a shift in the center of gravity
of the Muslim world away from the unstable Middle East to South Asia is not in
evidence as yet. Towards this end Muslim Indians may need first to reforge
South Asian bonds by thinking of South Asia as a single civilizational entity
that it has been through millennia. This will be to India’s and regional
advantage, besides keeping ill winds from Middle Eastern wars out of India. It
will counter India’s strategic tutoring by the US and Israel through strategic
partnerships with both states, overt and covert respectively.
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